Monday, February 14, 2022

All Renovations Take More Money and Time Than Expected

 "This team, it's like being at the Pro Bowl every day" -- Rams edge rusher Von Miller, after the Super Bowl last night.

Driving on a few errands last week, I idly heard Mark Bertrand and Scott Zolak announce their theme for that day's broadcast. As caller magnets go, it wasn't bad. "What five things can the Patriots do to get to the Super Bowl next season?"

I didn't call, because I felt my answer, travel back in time to 2014 and use that roster, would be rejected as frivolous. But the hosts had plans, and they said step one was "sign J.C. Jackson to a long term contract." I switched channels. Here were two men either under or catering to a persistent local delusion -- that another Patriots' championship contender is an inevitability that will arrive sooner rather than later, as soon as possible, in fact.

All the best and cruelest delusions start from a base of some realities. The Patriots were not a bad team in 2021, they were a marginal wild card one. Their rookie quarterback did as well as reasonably could be expected. The team's defense had several months of genuinely excellent performance. If the 2021 season had any theme, it was that there was a jam of teams at the top of the NFL heap who were not all that different in strength from one another. The extraordinarily close and in some cases thrilling nature of the divisional, conference championship and Super Bowl games was proof of that. So why not speculate that the Pats could join that crowd of contenders next fall? The Bengals did it this year.

Fine. Speculate away. But don't start the speculation by saying, what this team really needs to do is sign its top cornerback to a new contract. The Patriots should re-enlist Jackson. He's one of their best players. But that's not a "Super Bowl here we come" move. It's a "how can we keep within hailing distance of our divisional rival" move. It's not improvement, it's trying not to regress.

The rival in question is the Bills. You may remember them from their wild card round game with New England, that 47-17 demolition. Older fans might recall Buffalo's 33-21 win in Foxboro three weeks earlier. The team the Pats are chasing in the AFC East spent 120 minutes dispatching New England with contemptuous ease.

In those two games Mac Jones did not play as well as reasonably could be expected, or well at all. The defense was nonexistent. The lack of overall team speed on both sides of the ball was dismally apparent. The gap between the Bills and Pats sure didn't look like it could be closed by a five-point plan for this offseason, more like a 25 point plan for the next five offseasons.

There is no shortage of Patriot improvement plans floating around. I'm sure they have more one of their own. But they all boil down to what's hardest to do in pro football or any sport -- getting better players. And not just better players, but some way way better players as well.

The Patriots spent a bazillion in free agency last offseason. They got better players, and their record improved accordingly. But with the exception of Matt Judon for some of the time, a time that ended abruptly before Christmas, they got no way way better players, so their improvement had its limits.

Look at New England from the perspective of an opponent's game plan, or better yet, from the perspective of an opponent's fans. Which players would be on the top of page one of that plan? Which players would you truly fear could wreck your favorite team? Any names pop into your mind? It is telling that what most opponents say about the Patriots is "we have to play a clean game." That's shorthand for "if we don't beat ourselves, we should be OK."

By contrast, the two teams in the Super Bowl featured, among others the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, several surefire Hall of Famers, a former Super Bowl MVP and a plethora of former and current Pro Bowlers. The Rams, and to a lesser but still real extent the Bengals, put the kind of players on the field coaches and fans do and should fear, the kind who can wreck an opponent even if that opponent plays well.

The Bengals did a lot of things right last night. Joe Burrow had a splendid game when upright. Ja'Marr Chase is fundamentally uncoverable. Cincinnati's linebackers were a revelation, at least to me. They didn't win because when it mattered most Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Von Miller were the best players on the field. They usually are. That's why they're feared, and should be.

The Rams got Miller in a midseason trade. They picked up Odell Beckham off the discard pile. Most famously, they traded their starting quarterback, high draft picks and most of Jared Goff's hideous contract to get Matthew Stafford. All those moves were last offseason, and led to the bromide that Los Angeles was "all in" this year.

The bromide ignores that Kupp and Donald have been Rams for some time now, as has tackle Andrew Whitworth. They traded for Jalen Ramsey in 2019 not 2021, and gave up two first round 2020 picks to do so. The Rams were not built in a one-year bet. It took time, smarts, nerve and more than a little luck to create the roster Miller loved joining. Kupp was a third round draft choice in 2017. I imagine about as many people thought he'd be an Offensive Player of the Year as thought Tom Brady would become what he did when HE was drafted.

Building a competent 53-man roster, which the Pats have, is hard enough. Finding fearsome talents is of course much harder. What's rare is always more difficult to find. Expensive, too. Expensive not just in money, but in time. The Patriots aren't in position to go for another free agency quick fix. They did that just improving to competent last season. They will have to be judicious searchers for new Raiders of the Lost Lombardi Trophy, hoping for wisdom and that the once in history luck of getting their hands on Brady didn't use up the franchise's good fortune quotient for all time.

It is difficult to imagine the Patriots getting worse next season, barring a Ravens-like run of injuries. It is just as difficult to imagine them frightening opponents the way they did when Brady was around.

What we all need to remember is that Brady was the sport's all-time number one superstar. It's going to take more than one new run-of-the-mill plain old superstar to make New England as scary as he did.



posted by Michael Gee @ 5:47 PM 0 comments

Sunday, February 06, 2022

Uneasy Lies the Puppet's Head That Wears the Crown

 The Commissioner's State of the NFL press conference is hardly the most enjoyable, but is perhaps the quintessential event of Super Bowl Hype Week. Like every other feature of the week, from Radio Row to product plug parties, it's designed not to make news, but to offer a nonsense-based news substitute, Beyond News if you will.

I have attended such conferences held by three different commissioners and they all fell into a pattern so rote as to be hypnotic. First the commish tells the several hundred reporters in attendance that the state of the NFL is so great it's beyond his poor powers of description. We had a very exciting season (almost always true). We made even more money (always always true). He ends with a shout out to the two teams that'll play next Sunday and a citation of various individual stars. Tom Brady is likely to be mentioned at length this year.

Then come the questions. Somebody asks about concussions and gets a long spiel about player safety, some of it quite true. Somebody asks if the NFL is considering a franchise in London/Mexico City/Mumbai/Mars and receives a bland porridge of praise for the football fans in those locales. Follow-up questions don't happen. Pointed questions don't happen all that often either. Pete Rozelle taught his successors well. A dull answer turneth away news. A half hour of crushing boredom has reporters thinking they should've spent the morning working on that Bengals' punter profile instead. The event wraps up and the commish moves on to a splendid lunch with CEOs, Senators and similar bigwigs.

No such luck for Roger Goodell this week. He will be asked to stand and deliver SOMETHING his questioners can report as actual news on the lawsuit Brian Flores filed last week charging a pattern of racial discrimination in the hiring of black head coaches. The usual scattershot of questions on different topics that served as the commissioner's, uh, shield, from awkward moments will be gone. 

All Goodell has as a defense is the truth. He already admitted yesterday that the NFL's record on hiring black head coaches is unsatisfactory. This week, he can repeat that, while trying to avoid its subsequent truth. "I'm only the commissioner. What can I do about it?"

Nothing, that's what. The hiring of personnel by the 32 NFL franchises is a matter where the commissioner has no power beyond that of suggestion. If one, two or more of the willful shady billionaires and fourth generation legacy types who own teams want to hire some 38-year old white coordinator because he reminds said owners of the coaches at their prep schools, 5-12 records of the future be damned, all Goodell can do is shrug. 

Sadly for Flores, that's probably all the federal courts can do as well, Proving a pattern of racial discrimination in hiring is easy, seeing as how Goodell confessed to it. Proving that pattern damaged Brian Flores the individual to the tune of x large amount of money is far harder.

This brings up the most interesting aspect of the suit filed by Flores. Its most serious charges don''t really relate to the underlying complaint at all. If Dolphins owner Stephen Ross offered Flores a $100,000 a game bonus for losing games in 2019, and if Ross tried to involve Flores in tampering with not-quite-yet free agent quarterback Tom Brady the following winter, that has nothing to do with racial discrimination whatsoever. It does however, have a great deal of relevance to the league's own rules, rules allegedly enforced by one R. Goodell.

One has to assume Flores has some evidence more concrete than his own memory to back up these charges. Otherwise, he's an idiot and his lawyer an even bigger one. In any event, these are charges Goodell cannot avoid addressing or rather, cannot avoid pretending to address.

The tampering charge is almost NFL routine. Ross will offer some nonsense excuse for meeting Brady and the Dolphins will be docked a seventh-round draft choice or given a token fine. Note: the franchise pays the penalty, not Ross himself.

The "bribing my coach to throw games" charge is an escalation by Flores that poses much potential danger for Goodell as well as Ross. If it can be substantiated under oath in court, then the owner himself will be subject to penalty, just as it was Antonio Brown, not the Buccaneers, who was penalized for using a fake vaccination card.

If Ross did offer Flores bonuses for losing, well, that's somewhat closer to the heart of "the integrity of the game" than say, deflating football. It's hard to see how the NFL could have any response but to force Ross to sell the Dolphins.

Except of course we all know, and Goodell knows best of all, this will never happen. Ross could break down on the witness stand confessing like the killer in a Perry Mason episode and the NFL's response will be "an in-house investigation." As with the investigation into the sexual harassment culture of the Washington franchise, it will remain secret unless Ross agrees to allow its release.

Players get sanctioned by the NFL. Franchises get sanctioned. But owners as individuals? Doesn't happen. The league moved behind the scenes to get Victor Kiam out of owning the Pats in the early '90s, but that was not for being a public embarrassment. It was for the one mortal ownership sin -- lack of capital. If Goodell was to move to throw Ross or any other owner out of the league, he'd be moving simultaneously to the ranks of the unemployed. 

None of these dire if entertaining scenarios will come to pass. Money is best at making problems go away, and the NFL has enough money to make any problem go away. Brian Flores will never coach in the NFL again. On the other hand, he may well wind up with a settlement that'll set him up for life, maybe even set up his family unto the fourth generation.

Come Goodell's press conference, and the prop bet to take is that he'll use the old "can't comment on pending litigation" dodge when asked ANYTHING about Flores' charges. He'll emerge unscathed from the even, aside from looking foolish. There's a decade of evidence that doesn't bother Goodell one bit.

I doubt the questions will even spoil the commissioner's appetite for lunch.

 

posted by Michael Gee @ 11:17 AM 0 comments