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If Wishes Were All-Pros, Beggars Could Ride Deep Into the Playoffs

Offseasons in all sports breed plans and schemes. Unfortunately for their creators, these are most often just dreams.

So it's not too surprising that a consensus has emerged within the New England Patriots' media-industrial complex that there's nothing wrong with the franchise that five or six new Pro Bowl calibers couldn't fix. For the record, I agree. I would also agree if this diagnosis was given for any of the 17 other teams that didn't make the postseason in 2022, even the lowest of the low like the Bears and Texans. Put the likes of Roquan Smith, Darius Slay and Cooper Kupp on any of 'em and it's a cinch they'd win more games in 2023.

The Pats' commentators wish list is a long one. In no particular order, it goes, new tackle for the offensive line, a new number one corner, a new number one wide receiver, and several new linebackers. Also a new third down running back would be nice, and of course the team has to replace its kickers. How all this is to be accomplished in the 4 1/2 short months before training camp is left for Bill Belichick to figure out.

My guess is that Belichick will indeed figure out how to acquire a couple, or maybe even one more than a couple, of the items on the above wish list. But the only management genius who could get all of them for the current Patriots by late next summer is Santa Claus.

The means by which a team may acquire better NFL players are well-known. There's the draft, trades, free agency, and rarest of all, coaching or an athlete's natural development results in dramatic improvement by a guy already on the roster. 

The Pats have cap space to spend on free agents. But free agency is a two-way street. They also have free agents to lose, notably cornerback Jonathan Jones and wideout Jakobi Myers. The website Sportrac estimates each man's market value at $12.5 million per season, an exponential raise from their 2022 salaries.

Either the Pats let the two go or spend more for them. Whichever choice they make, a significant chunk of their free agent budget will go for running hard to stay in the same place. This isn't mismanagement, it's how the system is supposed to work.

Then there are trades. The nihilists on Felger and Mazz have floated the idea the Pats want to acquire Deebo Samuel from the 49ers. Splendid idea. Samuel is a wholly admirable player, the kind who truly would improve any team. This is why he's unlikely to come cheap. Since the Pats' primary desirable asset is draft capital, they'd once again give up a means of improvement to improve via another.

None of this is the result of mismanagement. It is the way the NFL system is set up to work. The whole idea of the league is that it is easier to rise to the middle from the bottom than to rise from the middle to the top. Indeed, it's far easier to slide off the top to the middle, another built-in feature. 

Nothing I've written above is news to anyone, or shouldn't be. The people making up those five-point plans for a New England renaissance know it perfectly well. I can't fault the lists for what's in them, only for the assumption, and in some cases the outright statements, by the listmakers that all these changes can and should be made immediately. letting the Pats return to their manifest destiny as one of the NFL's top five (at least) teams.

How spoiled is that? How is it that media and fans here can accurately describe Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback of his time and yet pretend losing Brady shouldn't have cost the Pats a few spots in the standings? All dynasties end. The Patriots' dynasty ended the day Brady left for Tampa, and what's left here in New England is the stubborn refusal to accept the fact the team is now, well, just one of the bunch of middle strivers caught in the near-impossible process of becoming consistent playoff qualifiers.

There's maybe one or two other men alive who know as much about NFL history than Belichick. Rest assured he knows the record perfectly well. There's only been one franchise ever to lose a Hall of Fame QB and return to the title without a long, painful interregnum, the 49ers of the '80s and '90s. That's because they had Hall of Famer Steve Young to replace Joe Montana.

Maybe Mac Jones will take the kind of leap Josh Allen has, or Jalen Hurts did last season. Maybe not, too. And if he does, well then Jones will be looking for at least Kyler Murray money, like $45 million a year. There may be a quarterback someday who turns out to be as good as Brady, but none will ever come along who'll take lower salaries for the "good of the team" as Brady did with the Pats. He himself will tell QBs not to.

The football takes funny bounces, players indeed get better, or stay healthier or both. It's certainly possible the Patriots could rebound to one of the NFL's best records in 2023. Look at what the Vikings did last season.

Oh, was that a bad example?

posted by Michael Gee @ 11:46 AM