Statistics Aren't Everything, but They're Not Nothin'
In the 2020 NFL regular season, a quarterback to be named later had a higher completion percentage than Tom Brady, averaged almost an entire yard more per pass attempt than Ben Roethisberger, was sacked 10 fewer times than Matthew Stafford, and had more game-winning drives than MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Don't bother asking if the Patriots can trade for this phenom. They don't have to. Until mid-March, they have the exclusive negotiating rights with Cam Newton.
Cue the howls. Newton was a bum, the chorus wails. He was a wildly inaccurate passer unable to make the simplest throws. He cost the Pats at least three games with terrible turnovers. He was the symbol of the franchise's collective fall from playoff grace.
Some if not all of the above paragraph is true. Newton's incompletions were disproportionately horrible throws and a number of them were of the easy-to-complete version like dumpoffs to running backs. He did have the late fumble that cost New England the first Buffalo game. He was the symbol of a painfully limited offense with a penchant for slow starts and sputtering finishes.
But the raw numbers also suggest Newton was as much victim as cause of these problems. Yeah he made bad throws, but he did have a 65.8 completion percentage (Brady was 65.7). He did average a mediocre but not dreadful 7.2 yards per attempt (Roethlisberger 6.3). And he was unable to close the deal in an unfortunate number of winnable games. Still, he had two game-winning drives in 2020. Rodgers had one.
Confession time. As someone who saw all the Pats' games this year, I leaned towards the conventional New England wisdom about Newton's 2020 performance. I rated his 11 rushing touchdowns as akin to a catcher leading his team in stolen bases. That's nice, but it's not what he gets paid for. My final judgment was that Newton was born under a bad sign as far as the Pats were concerned. He was unlucky as well as flawed, and it was in everyone's interest, especially Newton's, if he moved on.
But then I was listening to Felger and Mazz yesterday (quarantine plus winter breeds bad habits) and heard Felger denounce Bill Belichick for not making an effort to trade for Carson Wentz. I watch a lot of Eagles games, too, and recalled that Wentz was benched for cause last season and that Philadelphia found him so surplus to requirements that they absorbed a $34 million dead money cap hit to trade him to the Colts.
So off I went to do a little research at pro-football-reference.com. My lead paragraph was an effort in fudging with statistics, my next sentence will be cold hard fact. Cam Newton was a much better quarterback in 2020 than Carson Wentz. Like, by an amazing amount. It's hard not to be better than the league leader in interceptions, sacks, and yardage lost on sacks, numbers compiled in less than a full season of play.
The Patriots will be unlikely to make the playoffs if Newton returns as their starting quarterback. But they're also unlikely to make the playoffs in 2021 no matter who replaces him. The sooner the franchise and its followers realize how far they've fallen, the sooner they'll climb back up, but it'll be a journey of many more than a single step.
From Newton's point of view, I stand by my earlier opinion. It's best for him to find another home. Replacing Brady was always a no-hope assignment. Here in New England, Newton would get no credit for any wins, and much blame for all losses. That's not fair. That also is what creates the idea a quarterback is just unlucky.
From Bill Belichick's point of view, I doubt he'll bring Newton back. When progress is impossible, the illusion of progress becomes essential. But without lottery winner's luck (sure Marcus Mariota can be the next Kurt Warner rags to riches story, we've all seen that in him), the Pats' starting quarterback in 2021 is likely to be a modest improvement on Newton. As Wentz shows, he could be worse, too.
If Belichick DID decide to bring Newton back, it'd be a big gamble with considerable downside. But it wouldn't be the craziest decision, not at all.
If Newton came back, he'd be getting all the downside. Better to find a new home. Statistics, if not memory, tell us he should get one.
There's Only Half of GOAT in TEAM
Start with the obvious. Without Tom Brady at quarterback, there's no chance in a million the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would've reached the Super Bowl.
Move on to the almost as obvious but much less noted. All other things being equal, the Bucs could've WON the Super Bowl over the Chiefs with at least 10 other NFL quarterbacks inserted in Brady's place. Not just Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson, either. Give Kirk Cousins a defense that holds the Chiefs without a touchdown, he'd deliver the Lombardi Trophy too.
Brady turned in a swell performance last Sunday night. He had three touchdown passes and no turnovers. If he only threw for 207 yards on 29 attempts, well, Tampa Bay had no need to pass in the fourth quarter, did it? It is, however, more realistic to view his Super Bowl MVP award as more of a Seasonal, or even Lifetime, Achievement Award. Based exclusively on the 60 minutes of game action, the real MVP was linebacker Devin White, or the edge rushers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. They were the primary wreckers of what had been the league's leading offense in 2020. They were the main factors behind the most significant statistic of Super Bowl 55 -- namely the right side of the scoreboard reading KC - 9.
This is such a familiar miscarriage of justice (the same one happened to the Patriots defense in Super Bowl 53) as to hardly merit comment. Since without Brady, the Bucs go at best 9-7 and lose to the Seahawks in the wild card round if they're lucky, it's hard to object. Super Bowl MVP is often an award meaning "Champion Team's MVP for the season." That's why Peyton Manning has one. On those grounds, Brady was overqualified.
When Brady arrived, the Bucs were a Maserati in which a Ford Focus engine had been installed by mistake. They didn't run too smoothly because Jameis Winston was a disastrous quarterback. Brady found this situation a reviving challenge. It was fun to have a new team to bend to his will, a new set of potential disciples for his school of football theory and practice, fun to have a professional reset. Brady finds every element of pro football, which is 99 percent miserable drudgery and one percent Game Day, sheer pleasure. It is possibly his remarkable gift that Brady can convince hard-bitten pros he's right on that score. By the time the playoffs started, the Bucs were both jubilant and ferocious. It's a tough combo to beat.
However, the reverse of the coin is equally true. Without the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady doesn't get near his seventh NFL championship. He's still a Patriot in 2020, his team goes 10-6 tops and gets mushed by the Titans or Bills or Ravens in the wild card round. Brady needed the plethora of offense playmakers on the Bucs' roster to maximize his individual abilities. He sure as hell needed that defense to bail him out against the Saints, and to nullify the three interceptions he threw in the second half against the Packers in the NFC title game.
Every single Buc played a superior game against the Chiefs, many much better than that. This is what it takes to turn a Super Bowl into a blowout. Brady deserves all the praise you want to give him for this season. His teammates as a group deserve more. What happens if Tampa Bay's offensive line had turned in an effort comparable to the Chiefs' turnstile impressions? Quarterback is the most important position on any football team, and Brady's the best ever at the job. But quarterback's importance is only a plurality, not a majority, of a football team's whole. To prove that, just compare Brady down the stretch of his 2019 season in New England and Brady down the stretch this season.
So did Brady do more to make the Bucs into champions or did they, all the rest of the players and coaches, do more to return him to a championship? The answer is "yes."
The Coward's Way Out Is At Least a Way Out
This is the latest I have ever posted a Super Bowl prediction on this blog. That's because I don't have one. Or maybe I mean I have two, which is even more cowardly.
One of my strongest sentiments about football comes courtesy of Paul Brown, the coach Bill Belichick regards as the greatest in history. "You can't lick speed," Brown once said, explaining why Fundamentals of Running was the first page in his playbooks.
That was back in the '50s, when the game was so much more a slog and tug of war than it is 70 years later. It isn't an exaggeration to say the NFL is a different sport than it was back then, a sport designed by rule and natural athletic selection to make foot speed a dominant factor at every position -- center included.
Nobody's all-around faster than the Kansas City Chiefs. On offense, there may never have been a faster team. Certainly they have the quarterback to maximize that advantage. As a result, the Chiefs are never out of a game. Give them three minutes and they can give you three touchdowns. Did it in the last Super Bowl as I recall.
So I can't really pick against the Chiefs. But I sure can't pick them to win either. I gave up betting against Tom Brady years ago. Something about career winning percentage. Something about this being Brady's 10th Super Bowl in 20 seasons as a starter. That's every other freakin' year!
The Tuck Rule game. Malcolm Butler's interception. 28-3. Brady's not just great, he's got luck on his side, the luck that follows greatness around more often than you'd suppose. Fortune favors those best able to use it.
So no pick here. I'm not clairvoyant. I can't tell whether the Buccaneers or the Chiefs will have the game's last possession, so I'll just guess that team will be Super Bowl champs by 10 p.m.
