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Statistics Aren't Everything, but They're Not Nothin'

 In the 2020 NFL regular season, a quarterback to be named later had a higher completion percentage than Tom Brady, averaged almost an entire yard more per pass attempt than Ben Roethisberger, was sacked 10 fewer times than Matthew Stafford, and had more game-winning drives than MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Don't bother asking if the Patriots can trade for this phenom. They don't have to. Until mid-March, they have the exclusive negotiating rights with Cam Newton.

Cue the howls. Newton was a bum, the chorus wails. He was a wildly inaccurate passer unable to make the simplest throws. He cost the Pats at least three games with terrible turnovers. He was the symbol of the franchise's collective fall from playoff grace.

Some if not all of the above paragraph is true. Newton's incompletions were disproportionately horrible throws and a number of them were of the easy-to-complete version like dumpoffs to running backs. He did have the late fumble that cost New England the first Buffalo game. He was the symbol of a painfully limited offense with a penchant for slow starts and sputtering finishes. 

But the raw numbers also suggest Newton was as much victim as cause of these problems. Yeah he made bad throws, but he did have a 65.8 completion percentage (Brady was 65.7). He did average a mediocre but not dreadful 7.2 yards per attempt (Roethlisberger 6.3). And he was unable to close the deal in an unfortunate number of winnable games. Still, he had two game-winning drives in 2020. Rodgers had one.

Confession time. As someone who saw all the Pats' games this year, I leaned towards the conventional New England wisdom about Newton's 2020 performance. I rated his 11 rushing touchdowns as akin to a catcher leading his team in stolen bases. That's nice, but it's not what he gets paid for. My final judgment was that Newton was born under a bad sign as far as the Pats were concerned. He was unlucky as well as flawed, and it was in everyone's interest, especially Newton's, if he moved on.

But then I was listening to Felger and Mazz yesterday (quarantine plus winter breeds bad habits) and heard Felger denounce Bill Belichick for not making an effort to trade for Carson Wentz. I watch a lot of Eagles games, too, and recalled that Wentz was benched for cause last season and that Philadelphia found him so surplus to requirements that they absorbed a $34 million dead money cap hit to trade him to the Colts.

So off I went to do a little research at pro-football-reference.com. My lead paragraph was an effort in fudging with statistics, my next sentence will be cold hard fact. Cam Newton was a much better quarterback in 2020 than Carson Wentz. Like, by an amazing amount. It's hard not to be better than the league leader in interceptions, sacks, and yardage lost on sacks, numbers compiled in less than a full season of play.

The Patriots will be unlikely to make the playoffs if Newton returns as their starting quarterback. But they're also unlikely to make the playoffs in 2021 no matter who replaces him. The sooner the franchise and its followers realize how far they've fallen, the sooner they'll climb back up, but it'll be a journey of many more than a single step.

From Newton's point of view, I stand by my earlier opinion. It's best for him to find another home. Replacing Brady was always a no-hope assignment. Here in New England, Newton would get no credit for any wins, and much blame for all losses. That's not fair. That also is what creates the idea a quarterback is just unlucky.

From Bill Belichick's point of view, I doubt he'll bring Newton back. When progress is impossible, the illusion of progress becomes essential. But without lottery winner's luck (sure Marcus Mariota can be the next Kurt Warner rags to riches story, we've all seen that in him), the Pats' starting quarterback in 2021 is likely to be a modest improvement on Newton. As Wentz shows, he could be worse, too.

If Belichick DID decide to bring Newton back, it'd be a big gamble with considerable downside. But it wouldn't be the craziest decision, not at all.

If Newton came back, he'd be getting all the downside. Better to find a new home. Statistics, if not memory, tell us he should get one.

posted by Michael Gee @ 11:41 AM