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The Seeds of Victory and Defeat Are Sown on Snowbanks

The NBA and NHL regular seasons are more than a little meaningless. But they're not totally meaningless. It's all in how you look at them. Look, for example, at the Celtics and Bruins.

Step first: Don't look at the standings. As the Celtics and Cavaliers have just proved, in a best-of-seven series, the difference in overall quality between a team that won over 70 percent of its games and one that won something under 60 percent is not necessarily computed by subtraction of the lesser figure from the higher.

No, the way to examine the endless winter sports regular seasons to treat them as long 19th century Russian novels about life and the cosmos. What does this endless treatise, with its many dead spots, digressions, and hours of tedium (Turgenev never came up with a time-killer to match February in the NBA, or the annual visit of the Phoenix Coyotes), tell us about its protagonist, the team we're following?

For the Celtics, the theme of 2009-2010 was simple. Doc Rivers sure talked about it enough for us to get the point. When the Celts played their best defense or close to it, they were as legitimate a championship contender as anyone could desire. When they didn't, they were some kind of average on the court. Due to age, injuries, etc., Boston's intensity fluctuated, and so did their performance, but as painful as losing to the Nets at home might have been, it did not change the fundamental equation.

Against Cleveland, when the Cavs scored 100 or more, they won, in one case in a humiliating rout. When the Celts held the Cavs to under 100, they won from margins ranging from convincing to even more humiliating.

Without predicting an outcome, I will venture to guess this pattern will hold true against the Magic as well. The games may be closer, because the Magic have more players who can score against strong defense than did the Cavs, but what was true for the Celts in March will remain true in May.

Turning to the ice that is being removed from the Garden as this is being typed, the historic nature of the Bruins' loss to the Flyers, full of exquisite tortures such as the two blown 3-0 leads, the too-many-men on the ice penalty, and the horrible fact Boston was an overtime bounce away from a sweep, will but should not obscure their regular season truth. Yes, it's amazing and astonishing and more than slightly disgraceful to blow a 3-0 playoff series lead. But it's amazing and astonishing and more than a little disgraceful to go an entire month of the regular season without winning a game, and the Bruins did that, too.

As a group, the Bruins were fragile, all season long. They always possessed the capacity for total collapse, as evidenced by their ten-game losing streak. Without bothering to look it up, I'd be willing to bet that no team in any sport has ever won a championship after suffering a ten-game losing streak in its regular season. Such a streak means a team is constantly on the brink of total disaster, even when it's winning.

Disaster came for the Bruins last night. It was shocking in its sudden nature, but on balance, not surprising.

posted by Michael Gee @ 6:42 AM