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It Ain't Just Josh

Consider, if you will the following pitching record.

W-L: 10-7
IP: 155
H: 163
ER: 87
BB: 65
SO: 123
WHIP: 1.481
ERA: 5.05

That's roughly a season's worth of work -- for a fifth starter for a good team who basically didn't pitch well, but has enough stuff to strike people out and who got bailed out more often than not by a lineup that scored a bunch of runs for him.

It is also, as you may have guessed, the composite pitching record of the current starting rotation of the Boston Red Sox. Yes, the number is skewed by the consistent suckiness of Josh Beckett and the rocky re-entry of Daisuke Matsuzaka. The point is, a bell curve has outliers in each direction, or is supposed to. The best starting pitchers for the Sox, which to date have been Clay Buchholz and John Lackey, have not been as acey as the rotation's two tail risks have been sucky.

It is reasonable to expect that this group of pitchers will improve on their collective mediocrity, as their track record says they will. It is not reasonable to state that the Sox' strength is their starting pitching -- because so far, it isn't. And if the starters' ERA remains over 5, it won't matter if David Ortiz slugs .800 the rest of the way.

posted by Michael Gee @ 8:49 AM