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Wearing Rose-Colored Glasses At Night, In the Rain

The Patriots didn't get blown out by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last night. Cue another week of looking for a bright future for the team by fans (who can be forgiven) and too many members of the Pats-takes-industrial complex (who should know better). A close loss to a better team can be spun to some extent, but too much spin on the delivery is bad in any sport.

Exhibit A: The Globe headline on Ben Volin's game analysis: "Even in a Patriots loss, Bill Belichick got the better of his matchup with Tom Brady." Oh, really? Why don't we ask Bill if he agrees. Go ahead, Ben. I'm sure you'll get an extensive answer.

Exhibit B: On NBC Sports Boston's postgame show very early this morning, Tom Curran had the audacity to say he was "going on to Houston (the Pats' next opponent)." The Brady era is over in New England, he said accurately. The panelists agreed that the Mac Jones era had now begun, an era of distinct promise. The interregnum is over and a return to future Pats' glory likely.

Any spin worth its salt is based on some facts. Brady did not excel against New England's defense, to put it mildly. His throws were often high and outside of their targets. Jones had an excellent game in miserable conditions. Tampa Bay's secondary was poor even before it became injury-riddled, but 19 straight completions is a splendid seven-on-seven drill in training camp, let alone in a real game.

And yet, and yet, the scoreboard still ended up Bucs 19-Patriots 17. It was far from the first game in Foxboro where Brady didn't exactly shine but still pulled off a close win. (I remember one famous one from way back. It was snowing.) This was just the first time he did it against New England. Perhaps I am old-fashioned, but I just cannot believe that a close loss at home to a team that didn't play close to its best is a portent of happier days ahead.

Volin and Curran are fine reporters and anything but homers. My guess is their sunshiny analyses were in reaction to their pregame suspicions that the Bucs would indeed blow the Pats away by like 31-10 or so. Moist tropical air colliding with cooler air from the north made that impossible. It wasn't blowout weather last night. It was a night made for what happened, a disjointed but mighty tough game where hanging on to the ball was a signal triumph on any play, a night where Leonard Fournette and Jakobi Meyers were the most dynamic offense weapons for their team.

Most of all, it was the kind of night meant for a game that'd come down to one win-it-or-lose-it-here play. Facing fourth and three from the Tampa Bay 37, Belichick decided that he wanted that play made by kicker Nick Folk, a 56-yard field goal in the pouring rain. Folk didn't miss by much, but miss he did.

Belichick's decision to try the kick rather than go for the first down with a minute left had the analytics crowd shrieking in pain. Again, this might be just me, but it also hints that the coach has somewhat less confidence in his promising rookie QB than does Cris Collinsworth. When it came time to put the game on his best offensive weapon, Belichick chose Folk's foot over Jones' arm. That's unfair to Jones. It's more likely that Belichick has little confidence in his whole offense, not just Jones.

Nineteen straight completions is fantastic. But it is an individual performance that ought to translate into many more than 17 points no matter how foul the weather. Porous secondary and all, Tampa Bay had its BEST defensive performance of the young season. By a lot. They'd allowed at least 25 points in their three previous games. 

Jones is leading an offense that is failing at its primary goal -- scoring. New England is averaging 17.8 points a game. That is 27th in the NFL. This wouldn't get it done in 1986, let alone 2021.  There have been a variety of reasons for the disparity between Jones' decent but not more stats (very good in completion percentage,  poor in yards per attempt) and the scoreboard, turnovers against Miami, the humiliating minus-one yard rushing last night, but a variety of reasons for failure means a team has multiple problems.

Problems and all, New England ought to win next week, because the Texans are barely an NFL franchise at this point. Then come the Jets again, and they've had their win for this month. The takes-industrial complex will be giddy at the .500 record. My reaction will be more measured.

New England is far from a bad team. OK does not equal "playoff contender." What the first month of the season has shown is that the Pats are a team that's lost the knack of winning in a league where well over a third of games are decided by two or three plays at the most. It's a hard knack to develop. Like most things that're hard to define and impossible to quantify, the knack of winning seems more inherent than learned behavior.

The guy that has had the knack to a higher degree than any player in football history showed once more what it looks like last night. Tom Brady had an average night for any NFL QB, let alone him, and his team still made the two-three plays that won the game.

When Mac Jones has an average game for a rookie QB and the Pats win a close one anyway, then and only then will the team be getting somewhere.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:45 AM