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Give the Kid a Break, Give Him the Freedom to Fail

 This morning's Globe had a story by Ben Volin collating predictions from various NFL media, ex-players and such that with Mac Jones as starting quarterback, the Patriots were a cinch to make the playoffs and maybe make some noise in them, too.

Later on I was channel surfing and caught an NFL Network talking head predict that Jones would throw more touchdown passes against the Dolphins come Sunday than would Aaron Rodgers against the Saints.

These sunshiny forecasts are inevitable. Nobody's ever as good as the QB who hasn't played yet. They are also unfair to the point of cruelty to Jones himself. All things are possible, but some are rather less possible than others. In the NFL, a starting rookie quarterback finding instant success has always been on the less possible side of that equation.

It's fair to note that rookie starting quarterbacks usually earn that role because their new team was terrible last year and figures to be the same this season. Nobody's going to hold a three-interception game against Trevor Lawrence. Sensible observers will simply hope the Jaguars don't get him killed out there.

It is Jones' good and bad fortune that he inherits not a bad team, but one which was merely mediocre in 2020. On the plus side, he's less likely to face weekly pulverizations. On the down side, this has bred expectations for his performance that are more like daydreams than forecasts.

Only going to say this once, Pats' fans. Cam Newton was poor last season, but he wasn't the only reason the Pats went 7-9. Not by a long shot. Maybe those other reasons were addressed in the offseason, and maybe not.

In any event, to say Jones looked good in preseason is accurate. To say that in a straight line projection this means he'll look good for 17 regular season games is a statement to which pigskin history says, "that's not the way to bet.

Went into pro-football-reference.com and looked up the rookie seasons of Hall of Fame quarterbacks who started most or all of their team's games that year. First thing I noticed is that there weren't that many of 'em. It took Terry Bradshaw four years to become the regular Steelers' starter. Bart Starr rode the pine for several seasons, as did Sonny Jurgensen and Ken Stabler. Bobby Layne got traded by his first team. Johnny Unitas was cut from his. Warren Moon had to go to Canada to play.

But there are Canton residents who were thrown in the fire their first season in the league, and the results were not often happy ones. Troy Aikman went 1-15. Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions, and threw the worst single pass yours truly has ever seen, a kind of sky hook for an incompletion near the Patriots' goal line. John Elway threw twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes. So did Dan Fouts. Going back to the original NFL passer, the father of the modern quarterback, so did Sammy Baugh.

No, only two of the quarterbacks I looked up were dominant performers as rookies. Dan Marino was one. The other was Otto Graham, and we must note that due to World War II, Graham was 25 years old his rookie season.

So while it's POSSIBLE Jones will face smooth sailing this fall, it's way more likely he'll show flashes of brilliance mixed with flashes of game-losing type errors. If that's what happened to a majority of all-time greats, it figures to happen to him, too. I cannot believe NFL historian Bill Belichick hasn't considered and accepted that possibility.

Belichick knows all those struggling rookies I cited turned out just fine, thank you. They played though the experience and became better, much better, for it. My fear is that this week's rosy predictions become a breeding ground for bitter overreactions if Jones has the kind of rookie season most rookie QBs endure. We have a jaded and spoiled NFL fanbase here in New England, and media which excels in pushing its buttons.

You can't wish the future into existence. Let Jones have his future. Don't go confusing it with Tom Brady's past. He'll be happier if you don't. So will you.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:22 AM