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Tell Cam's Statistics to Shut Up

Seems like old times. Haven't written a word he's seen in 16 years, but Bill Belichick just couldn't wait more than a day to make me look foolish. My previous post suggested the Patriots' best solution at quarterback was to take a flyer on a top member of the draft class of 2021, so naturally Bill re-signed Cam Newton to another one-year contract yesterday, and at a price (6 million real dollars, 8 million in incentive maybe dollars) that means Newton will either be the putative starter as camp begins or a really high-paid backup.

Cue the howls of wounded outrage from the spoiled members of the New England fan base (a significant segment) and that section of local media that butters its bread by bear-baiting same. They are certain, with the conviction that only comes with selective memory, that Newton was the worst quarterback in the NFL last season, that's he's a washed-up bum who's the only reason the Pats went 7-9 and missed the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons.

The howls are easy to understand. Outrage is way more fun than disappointment. The latter however is the proper response to Newton's 2020. He wasn't the worst quarterback in the NFL, just solidly below average. That's not good, or even mediocre. But to make Newton the lead villain in the end of New England's dynasty is incorrect to the point of injustice. It's also to forget the 2019 season where it took historic great Tom Brady just to make the Pats a playoff team, a season where the rest of the roster made Brady look mediocre himself down the stretch.

The prosecution always leads off. The macro case against Newton's performance in 2020 is familiar. He holds the ball too long in the pocket. He cannot make the short passes at which Brady excels and which were therefore a critical part of New England's offensive scheme. There were games in which Newton was so bad, even his main man Belichick benched him for nonperson Jarrett Stidham.

All of this true. But it's an incomplete truth. Newton indeed was supremely lousy in four of his eight losses as a starter, against the Rams, 49ers, Broncos and the December loss to the Bills. He was lousy in the win Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury handed the Pats for good measure. This is what one might expect. It takes luck for any NFL team to win when their QB stinks.

This leaves us with four other New England losses to account for. In three of them, Newton played more than well enough for the Pats to win. In the other, he was having an acceptable game -- until its last play. Let's examine these in more detail.

Sept. 20 at Seattle: Pats lose 35-30. Newton passes for 397 yards and a TD, runs for two more scores. Russell Wilson passes for five touchdowns. Newton stuffed on a run at Seattle goal line on last play of game.

Nov 22. at Houston: Pats lose 27-24. Newton passes for 365 yards and a TD. No turnovers. Deshaun Watson passes for 344 yards and two TDs, runs for another.

Dec. 20 at Miami: Pats lose 22-12. Newton is 17-27 for 209 yards passing, runs for another 38. Miami rushes 42 times for 250 yards and three TDs.

Now for the most interesting Patriot defeat of the season, the Nov. 1 24-21 loss to the Bills. Newton passed for 174 yards, not great, but better than opposite number Josh Allen managed. He also ran for 54 yards and a TD. And no one remembers, because in the epitome of Newton's 2020 season, Cam was leading a winning or tying drive as the fourth quarter neared its end, then fumbled inside the Bills' 15 trying to make more of an already successful run.

Fumbles are the most random element of football. These days, they are most often the result of the ballcarrier trying for superheroism when "damn good play" would be plenty. Can't speak for everyone, but a QB trying to do too much is my choice over one who won't.

Let's not go into the five New England wins where Newton had games ranging from good to excellent. There's no point, since his critics refuse to acknowledge they exist. Besides, there's really another moral to this essay than "Cam wasn't as bad as you thought." He was just that on too many occasions.

But on equally numerous occasions, New England AS A TEAM was just as bad or worse than Newton. Yeah, he was terrible against the Niners. So was every other man in a Pats helmet. When a team allows 250 yards on the ground, that ain't the quarterback's fault.

It is also doubtful that the quarterback alone was responsible for Newton's ridiculous disparity of 8 passing touchdowns and 12 running ones. This indicates that in the red zone, Cam was often asked to be his own Rob Gronkowski due to receivers, especially tight ends, who were a nullity in tight quarters.

Why is it that just as baseball fans have abandoned the idea of measuring starting pitchers by wins and losses, football fans, who're often the same people, have taken it up as a yardstick for measuring quarterbacks? It's even less valid for what's infinitely more of a team sport. That's why Deshaun Watson wants out of Houston.

Even using that false yardstick, Newton wasn't the worst QB in the NFL. He started 7 wins and 8 losses. He was below average by arithmetical definition. There are any number of areas on the Patriots' roster where 2020 performances were below average.

If Belichick has decided that his best use of the offseason is to address those other, far easier to remedy, deficiencies rather than the high-risk, high-reward, really-high-chance of failure pursuit of a superior QB to Newton, he could well be making a mistake. For all anybody outside the New England organization knows, he could be doing so anyway, with the Newton signing a Plan B, or even C.

But if Belichick has decided to stand pat with Newton, it's not insane nor stupid. It's only a big gamble, like almost every decision about changing or not changing quarterbacks turns out to be.

posted by Michael Gee @ 10:44 AM