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Patriots Fans Might Want to Reassess Their Goals

 Bill Belichick took his phone to the coaches' booth upstairs at Gillette Stadium last night and threw it in frustrated fury. If Adam Vinatieri's field goal in the snow in 2001 in the Tuck Rule game is the image of the start of the Patriots' dynasty, Belichick's throw was surely the image of its irrevocable end.

The Pats are just another team now. Bill's just another coach with more problems that he has solutions. He hasn't forgotten any football or gotten any dumber in general since Tom Brady left last March. It's just that lack of talent at about eight positions on a pro football team is a problem a committee of every coach in the Hall of Fame could solve, at least right away, and more likely for a long long time, longer than it's likely Belichick will keep coaching.

NFL rules are designed to lift up the weak and hobble the strong -- in theory. The history of the Jacksonville Jaguars suggest this theory has some serious flaws in actual practice. Those flaws are known to every even casual fan. Ownership and front office instability and poor or mediocre personnel decisions, especially coaching choices and bad drafts, make some franchises see back-to-back playoff appearances as accomplishments worthy of a stadium banner.

The Pats probably won't fall that far. Their ownership is stable, and since Belichick IS the football operation, so is their front office until he hangs them up. And for all the flak Bill has had for bad drafting, throw wide receivers out of his picks and his record in the last decade has been average at worst. Drafting is hard.

No, if we wish to set our definition of a "good season" as one in which New England makes or seriously contends for the playoffs, that could take place as early as next season, or the season after next. The Pats are not wholly bereft of talent, it's just there's no amount of talent that can make up for quarterbacks who can't throw. Had Cam Newton been average, or even just below average in 2020 instead of wholly ineffective, New England would not have presented the sad spectacle it did against the Rams, Dolphins and Bills in the last few weeks.

But here's the trouble with dynasties when they end. Everyone involved, from the owner down to the lowliest talk show caller, has a definition of "good season" that they may SAY means "making the conference title game" but in their hearts means "winning the Super Bowl." That expectation will be the Pats' main problem as they face their future, because it will cast a dark nasty shadow on whatever they do accomplish.

Take it from me, gang. The dynasty, pro football's longest and greatest, is over. It's over for the same reason all previous all previous NFL dynasties ended -- Hall of Fame quarterbacks are thin on the ground, harder to find than snow leopards, and without one there's no dynasty.

Football historian Belichick knows this. The coach he most admires is Paul Brown, the game's most innovate mentor. With Otto Graham as his QB from 1946-1955, Brown's Browns (wrote this whole piece just to type that) appeared in 10 straight championship games in the NFL and old All-American Football Conference and won 7 of 'em. Graham retired and Brown never won another, despite having Jim Brown on his roster. 

That's hardly the only example. The Steelers have won 6 Super Bowls, four with Terry Bradshaw, two with Ben Roethlisberger, and none with any other QB. The 49ers won 4 with Joe Montana, one with Steve Young, and none with any other QB. The Cowboys won two titles with Roger Staubach, three with Troy Aikman and none with any other QB.

Those distinguished quarterbacks weren't the only reason their teams won Super Bowls, far from it. If they were, Aaron Rodgers would have more than one ring, too. Each franchise had a few other Hall of Famers on their rosters when they hoisted the Lombardi. But without their quarterbacks, periods of sustained championship accomplishment would've been impossible (The only exception is Washington in the '80s and early '90s. Joe Gibbs' teams won three Super Bowls in 11 seasons with three different QBs, which to my mind is why Gibbs is the most criminally underrated great coach).

There's not exactly a surplus of average and below-average NFL quarterbacks, but they can be found. That I'm sure was Belichick's baseline expectation for Cam Newton. This didn't work out, but it's an example of the sort of player who can be had in most offseasons by a competent franchise, which the Pats still are. 

The odds of obtaining the next great NFL quarterback, however, are prohibitively high each and every year. Doesn't the improbable story of how Belichick found, nurtured and put forward Tom Brady, the greatest of his very long time, tell us that? 

The Pats' dynasty lives forever in the record books. It shares a pinnacle of team sports alongside the Yankees, Celtics and Canadiens. The record books of those three franchises, however, are not light reading for New England. The longer the dynasty, the lengthier its title droughts.

The Yankees won 25 World Series in the 20th century, and one in this one. From 1953 to 1979, the Canadiens won 16 Stanley Cups in 26 years, and two in the next 40 years. Starting in 1957, the Celtics put up 16 NBA title banners in 29 years, and one in the next 34.

It's so easy to get accustomed to greatness, we fail to give it its due as a rarity. Patriots' fans would be well advised to savor the memories of the Brady-Belichick era as a once in more than one lifetime experience, not as something that will return soon or maybe ever.

Readjust. Enjoy wins for themselves. Stop treating losses as disasters or personal insults. Cheer for making the playoffs (which the current team is nowhere close to an even money bet for 2021) and exult in winning playoff games.

Don't let past perfect be the enemy of future good. It's one way future good never gets here.

posted by Michael Gee @ 10:27 AM