homegame

All the February Optimism That's Fit to Print

Over the decades, the Red Sox have generally performed in inverse ratio to expectations. The 2004 ALCS is one example. The 2019 regular season is one in the opposite direction.

If this pattern holds true, the Sox should win a minimum of 207 of their 162 games in the 2020 season. Expectations are past pessimism into actual dread. There's nothing like following a very poor season with an offseason consisting of nothing but unpleasant surprises to get a manic-depressive fan base into ledge-walking mode.

Don't jump yet, gang. It's entirely possible and perhaps even probable that the Sox will improve on their 84-78 record in their previous campaign. Just like "everything went our way" years like 2018 tend to revert to the mean next time around, so do "everything broke against us" years like 2019. Such is the generosity of the expanded playoff system that even a modest gain to the 88-91 range of wins could get Boston (or any other club) into the postseason, if only for a day.

IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION, PLEASE NOTE: This does not mean the Sox have done anything but lost ground from trading Mookie Betts, David Price and $48 million for three guys who won't be on the Opening Day roster except on the injured list. Teams never get better when they lose stars, and trading a superstar always involves taking a hit on the performance balance sheet. A team in any sport that does so is lucky to get back fifty cents on its metaphorical dollar. The most generous assessment of the Betts trade is that Boston might get back a quarter, but not this year.

This still leaves the Red Sox with a starting lineup containing three rather than four hitters who had .900-plus OPS's in 2019. Three of those is or ought to be enough to produce the runs necessary to win well more than half of a team's games, assuming all other aspects of their club are at least adequate.

There's the rub. The odd truth is, the presence or absence of Betts is almost irrelevant to any 2020 Sox forecast. It's the presence or absence and/or performance of other players who'll matter.

The equation is one short paragraph. If Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi enjoy good health and pitch at the upper range of their performance levels (even just midrange for Sale), then the Sox have enough to be a winner without Betts. If they can't, then even having Betts in the lineup every day wouldn't get Boston to the postseason.

The Red Sox: Big lineup, starting pitching questions. There's an original forecast for you. Could only have been cut and pasted from preseason previews of about 80 of the last 100 seasons at Fenway. Some of those 80 seasons were very good years, if not championship ones.

So calm your dread, Sox faithful. Besides, I'm sure the team is leveling with you when it says Eduardo Rodriguez's injury is nothing to worry about.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:07 AM