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There's No Algorithm for Funny Bounces

Suppose a more or less normal football fan had been awakened by a genie yesterday morning and was told that Lamar Jackson would have over 500 total yards for the Ravens while Ryan Tannehill would pass for only 88 yards for the Titans in last night's playoff game.  A reckless and greedy fan would go out and bet the house and car on Baltimore.

Said fan would be sleeping at the bus station tonight, because the Titans won 28-12 and were never really threatened in the game. Meanwhile, a more cautious and informed fan would have told the genie "insufficient data," rolled over and gone back to sleep. He or she would have known that yards gained are to football what base hits are to baseball. Can't win without 'em, but they don't have a one-to-one relationship to the scoreboard.

If my genie had added the following phrase. "BUT, Tennessee will have no turnovers and the Ravens will have three and fail to convert two fourth and ones" even the greediest fan would keep their wallet in their pocket and be sleeping in their own warm bed. Had the genie added "Oh, yeah, Derrick Henry will run for 195 yards" even a prudent fan might've made a little flutter on Tennessee pulling the upset.

Football is not a linear sport, which is why the very smart people who trade in its "analytics" speak in a language hard for the rest of us to comprehend. They're smart enough to know that no other game has so many wildly different variables, and their efforts to encompass all of them into formulas and/or game plans get complicated, too complicated for those for whom it's not a life's work. But a long time ago, a then-Patriots player told me in a single sentence what all that math must account for.

Sean Farrell was a pretty good guard in the 1980s (those seeking truth in an NFL locker room should always head to where the offensive linemen dress. They are football's working class. Quarterbacks are management). One day he said, "A football game has five or six big plays and all the rest is filler."

Just so. The Titans pitched a shutout on the big play scoreboard against Baltimore. From Jackson's first interception to Henry's 66 yard run that broke the game open for keeps to their four for four in red zone touchdowns, the Titans were ludicrously dominant in the game's decisive moments. Baltimore won all the filler and a lot of good it did 'em.

New England fans may recall that the Titans won all the big plays in their 20-13 win over the Pats last week. Other stats were more even than they were last night, but otherwise pick a memorable moment in that game and it's a Tennessee highlight, not a Patriot one.

Running the ball and winning with big plays is an old and perfectly valid plan for winning football games. It is, however, dependent on the sports' most random variable, the fact those big plays can take place on ANY of the 120 or so plays in a game. You only know which ones they were after the fact. Without at least one of the sport's elemental strengths, no team will dominate the big plays enough to win.

Tennessee would not be in the AFC championship game without one of the most prosaic elements in football, a cliche known for over a century, yet also a part of the sport that is subject to the most sophisticated and detailed data analysis. The Titans went on the road and held an offense led by the greatest quarterback of his time to 13 points. It went on the road again and held the league's leading offense and the season's record-shattering MVP quarterback to 12. That's not funny bounces. That's not a fluke or two. That's basic.

Keep 'em out of the end zone, your team usually wins.

posted by Michael Gee @ 10:23 AM