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Nobody Wants to Hear "You Look Good for Your Age."

Tom Brady didn't get the week off he of all Patriots wanted most and a big part of it was his own fault, the pick-six he threw against the Dolphins last Sunday that would've been part of a comic highlight reel if it'd been launched by Jameis Winston.

Big does not imply "most important." New England lost its bye week and to the Dolphins for that most prosaic and often overlooked reason in sports -- Miami played better. Overall, Brady had an OK game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick had an outstanding one. Davonte Parker went one on one with Pats' All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore and won the matchup far more often than not. If it weren't for those two and the rest of the Dolphins offense, the storyline this week would have been the tedious "Brady pulls it out as he always does" mantra after any kind of close Patriots' win.

But those two were there, so this week's storyline has been the even more tedious "does Brady have what it takes to win another Super Bowl?" mantra, one that has pretty much been an annoying mosquito buzz in our region's collective ear since Halloween. Some of that is also Brady's fault. The raging perfectionism that has made him an historic player boils over into pique when he and the Pats offense fail to live up to his standards. Immortals are like that, which is so many Greek myths are unpleasant tales. But the rest of us should take the nasty "wither Brady?" question at face value.

Its answer is quite revealing. A close examination of Brady's 2019 season is merely ample evidence for the off-the-cuff answer that pops into the brain as soon as the question is asked. "Can Brady quarterback another Super Bowl champion?" Sure, depending. Can Brady's Pats lose to the Titans on Saturday? Also sure, depending. The other 44 Pats are what it depends on.

Let's start with some obvious truths. This was far from Brady's best season as a pro and it got significantly worse in its second half when the Pats began playing actual NFL teams. He had an overall passer rating of 88.6, OK but no more. (passer rating is a flawed stat, but all football stats are flawed. We need 'em anyway). He had an over 100 rating, shorthand for a really good game, in only one of the Pats' final eight, in the 24-17 win over the Bills.

At the defense table, Brady's mouthpiece issues an objection. That rating is HIGHER than for Brady's 2001 and 2003 seasons, when he and New England won the first two of their six Super Bowls. Furthermore, in the four games this season where Brady had his lowest passer ratings, the Pats won three of them.

All true. The first stat cited, however, must be viewed in light of the fact Brady has been playing for roughly one-fifth of the NFL's entire existence. The sport has changed a great deal in two decades, all to the benefit of passers. A 2001 stat is not strictly applicable to today. Comparing Brady to his peers of 2019, we find his rating stood 18 among NFL quarterbacks. In a league of 32 teams, that's not so hot.

As for the second point of Brady's defense, it points to a football truth no amount of owner rules-tinkering can change. It is quite possible to win a championship with just OK or even mediocre quarterbacking if a team has a dominant defense (see Peyton Manning and 2015 Broncos, Brad Johnson and the 2002 Bucs, etc.) A team with a dominant QB and a mediocre defense cannot (see the entire careers of Dan Fouts and Warren Moon).

Brady could have weak games against the Eagles, Cowboys and Bills (first time around) and New England won because it allowed a total of 29 points in the three victories.  Brady played somewhat better but below his Hall of Fame standards against the Ravens, Texans and Chiefs and the Pats lost all three because their defense was far, far less than dominant.

Talk radio trolls assume that Brady's lack of good cheer this season is because he's mad at the other players on offense. No doubt sometimes he is. But there are cold hard fact indications he has come to terms with his 2019 reality better than he gets credit for. In the Tom vs. Time bout, there are some punches he's just gotta try to block, not counter.

Of all the many passing stats compiled by the invaluable pro-football reference.com, Brady's worst 2019 performances are in the gunslinger departments. He was 27th among QBs in yards gained per pass attempt and 25th in percentage of touchdown passes compared to pass attempts. The only category where Brady is in the top 10 is the opposite of a gunslinger number. He was eighth in interceptions thrown percentage with 1.3 percent. And it should be noted that since interceptions are so rare nowadays except in Tampa, one less pick and he'd be near or at the top.

To translate numbers into words, it sure seems as if Brady has adjusted to a situation where his prime directive as a QB is first do no harm. And the evidence of our own eyes supports that notion. Brady has been more willing to abort plays with throwaways that look terrible and to take early sacks than in the past. Anything but a pick. He looks at the 2019 Pats and knows he can't do that. That accounts for his public self-criticism session on the radio the day after the Miami loss.  That pick wasn't anybody's fault but his and he knows it.

The Patriots are now considered Super Bowl longshots not because Brady is in decline, but because it's just damn hard to win back-to-back-to-back games against playoff teams, two on the road, simply to reach it. But given my druthers, I'd prefer to enter the postseason with a quarterback who knows what he and his team can and cannot do to one who's sure his own abilities, no matter how great, can overcome any obstacle. That way lies late-career Brett Favre.

Nobody in the world of pro football, from owner down to fan at the end of the bar in Anytown, USA, will be surprised if the Pats win yet another title. Nobody will be surprised if they don't, either. No matter the outcome, Tom Brady will be a big but not the biggest reason it happened.

One final comment on statistics. Can you name the NFL leader in both passer rating and yards per attempt this season? That would be Ryan Tannehill of the Tennessee Titans. Any reader who sees that and wants to take the Titans and the five points is more than welcome to come over Saturday night and watch the game at my house.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:45 AM