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The Path of Least Resistance Is Always the Path Most Trodden

Tom Brady went on Instagram to tell the world he wants to play more football. Some NFL franchise will grant him this wish. Without the slightest inside insight into a man I haven't spoken to in 15 years, I am fairly sure that franchise will be the New England Patriots. It's the most sensible outcome, and when the topic is football, most of the time Brady, Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft are sensible people.

Inertia is a powerful force in human affairs, and the inertia drawing those three men to decide to stick together a few more seasons is particularly strong. It all boils down to the simplest of questions. Why wouldn't they?

Brady will be a free agent on March 18th, a status he requested and got with his last contract extension. We all like to be liked, and Brady doubtless relished the idea of being courted. But there's flirtation, and then there's breaking up the home for a new partner. For every human who does the latter, 20,000 or so stick to the former. Disruption of the familiar is scarier than it is exciting.

Brady wants a big annual salary number. The guy has his own frickin' island, so professional pride must be the reason. My guess is that the Pats will give it to him. Again, why wouldn't they?

The only surefire way Brady leaves New England is if the Pats offer him a sum he considers an insult to his professional pride. He'd be sure to let the world that was the reason, too.  No coach and few owners have made gutsier personnel calls than Belichick and Kraft, but basically saying they think Tom Brady is washed up would be an all-timer. If he turned out not to be, life in Foxboro would be less than pleasant for those running the show.

Besides, those saying the Pats should cut ties with Brady (mostly trolls, I notice) ignore the small issue of who'd play quarterback come Opening Day 2020. The problem of replacing Brady, which is likely unsolvable without massive luck, would move from a serious issue of medium-term planning to a five-alarm emergency that would consume the franchise's every thought. Belichick may relish the idea of locating, acquiring and training a long-term Brady replacement, but he's probably less enthusiastic about having to do so by September 13th.

No, far better than to give Tom a two year deal with sufficient money to placate his pride and work quietly on the new QB issue. The best break Brady got in his career was the 2000 season in which he was a third-string backup in utter obscurity, improving every day away from the eyes of everyone but Belichick. His eventual unlucky replacement deserves the same courtesy.

Besides an argument over money (source of the end of many a previously happy marriage), the only other conceivable motive for Brady leaving would be a pigskin midlife crisis. He could decide that a new team would offer fun and excitement he's not getting from the Patriots after 20 years.

Just writing that sentence makes me feel it's utterly absurd. I can't think of anyone less likely to have a midlife crisis of any kind than Brady. He's too naturally sunshiny.

Brady's also a football realist, realist to know there's a limit to the fun and excitement his potential suitors can offer a man who defines those two nouns as "winning." Consider the following. 2019 was the least successful season for Brady and the Patriots in a decade. The team won 12 games and lost 5. The three teams most frequently mentioned as landing spots for Brady are the Chargers, Titans and Dolphins. Those three teams won 12 games ONCE between the three of them in those 10 years.

I'm sure there's a part of Brady's brain that says to him, "you can make loser franchise X a winner." Sports people always think like that. Joe Judge took the Giants job, didn't he? But Brady's already with a team that looks pretty far from championship caliber right now. Far more fun, excitement and glory in bringing the Pats back to their accustomed level of triumph, all accomplished without the need to call Allied Van Lines.

People are complicated and accomplished people more complicated than the rest of us. There's no doubt I'm oversimplifying the thoughts and emotions of three extraordinarily accomplished men. But Tom Brady stays or goes is a binary decision, and those tend to boil down to powerful but simple motives.

For both parties in that decision, there are far more good reasons to keep their relationship going than to end it. Brady and the Patriots may no longer be overjoyed with each other. But they have been and can be content in their sticking together. Contentment is an underrated pleasure of a good long-term relationship.

posted by Michael Gee @ 1:24 PM