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Don't Throw Me in That Purple Briar Patch

The singular fact about the trade of Randy Moss is that the one party in the transaction running the fewest risks with the greatest chance of reward is Randy Moss. Football financial situations where teams are more vulnerable than players are very rare.

Player seeking new contract requests trade/receives trade is not exactly an unheard of event in NFL life, but it is notable how willing both the Vikings and Patriots were to make a deal that poses serious risks for both of them while Moss emerges with nothing but the chance for blue skies, puppies and serious sums of money in his future.

What did Moss want yesterday? What does every wide receiver want? The chance to have many footballs thrown his way and the chance to sign yet another lucrative contract. In New England, Moss's chances for the first were looking weak after the Monday night game in Miami, and as he stated himself months ago, his chances for the second were nonexistent.

In Minnesota, Moss will have his number called early and often by Brett Favre (that's one of the big risks in the deal for the Vikings). If he can't make the plays, well, Moss is no worse off than he was before. If he can, he'll be happier, and at least incrementally more likely to receive a new contract from the Vikings or somebody else than he was in New England.

For the Pats, the risks of this deal are beyond obvious. They are trading a Hall of Fame skill position player (in his sunset years, perhaps, but a Hall of Famer) from an offense which is still going to be expected to carry a defense that's, well, call it a movie still in development. Special teams touchdowns are great, but they're no formula for playoff qualification. Bill Belichick obviously believes that the Pats' offense is strong and versatile enough to survive the loss of Moss with no significant drop in production. He could well be right. He'd better be right. The consequences of incorrectness would be severe.

For Minnesota, the risks of the deal are that they have wrongly assessed their talent, and that Moss' presence will just make it more obvious that Brett Favre is at last done. Moss will make it less likely Brett remembers to hand off to Adrian Peterson every so often, and more likely Favre will end his career buried under a ton or so of pass rushers sometime this fall. While I do not believe Moss is the perennial malcontent some others do, it is a fact that he, like almost every other good wideout, tends to lose interest in a losing situation and/or an offense unable to use him.

Moss has lots of reasons to stay interested as a Viking, however. He's going to a franchise that's already proven it's desperate to win now and will cater to almost every whim of a player it deems valuable. I can't imagine a better situation for him from the pure self-interest standpoint.

Lucky Randy. Lucky Pats? Could be. But I think I want to see how those rookie tight ends take being doubled, and how Danny Woodhead handles shots from strong safeties with a four step running start on pass patterns before answering the question.

posted by Michael Gee @ 11:14 AM