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Block That Punt!

As noted here before, predictions are an onerous form of journalism. Either they're too wishy-washy to warrant writing, or they reveal more about the author's mindset than the subject at hand.

Sometimes, however, predictions are easy. Since my motto is "don't be afraid to grasp the obvious", I'm going to make two such gimmes.

The football takes funny bounces, so bear in mind this call reflects only what I believe to be a very high probability outcome. Should it be wrong, I won't be thundrestruck, but I will be startled.

If I'm able to meet a bookmaker willing to overlook my credit rating, I love the Patriots to win and cover the 8 1/2 point spread Sunday afternoon. The reasoning behind this forecast is simple enough for Sean Salisbury to follow.

It's very difficult for ANY pro football team to win twice in an opponent's home stadium. First, the only way it can happen is in the playoffs, meaning both clubs were reasonably successful in the regular season. Secondly, since you're on the road, it means your opponent had more success than you did. Finally, and worst of all for New York, your chances actually go down the better your season was. It's exponentially less likely the 10-6 Jets will beat the 12-4 Pats in Foxboro than it is the 8-8 Giants will topple the 10-6 Eagles in Philly (not that anyone should bet the Giants, mind you).

To use a coaching word, the vital element of the above formula is consistency. The Pats didn't always PLAY consistent football, but they won as consistently as all but three others teams in the NFL. They scuffled through some victories, a feat the Jets didn't have the talent to accomplish. When the Jets were off-key, they took some hideous losses.

The Jets can win if they outplay the Pats by a significant margin. If both teams are at the same level, New England will likely prevail. If the Jets don't play as well as the Pats, they'll lose by an area code. On the blackboard, this equals New England to win and cover.

Now for something way easier than football to forecast-politics. For the past week, newspapers and TV have been full of "wither the Democratic Congress?" thumbsucking. Today
's New York Times entry titled "Democrats face choice of two directions" is a classic example of the genre, a comedic exercise in D.C. butt-covering.

(For news consumers, here's a tip. Whenever a story speaks or writes about "leading" so-and-sos, Democrats, Republicans, whatever, that's a synonym for "people who returned the reporter's phone calls, then went off the record." Going off the record is a surefire way to get your slant into a news or sports story. God knows why. You learn the third day on the job off the record information is a minimum of 10 times more likely to be bullshit than the kind with a name attached.)

Anyway, the Times reporter allowed as the Democrats had two choices, spend their time trying to bust G.W. Bush's balls, or moving forward with their own ideas, which of course the author made clear was the pious goody two-shoes alternative.

A quick glance of the latest CBS News poll revealed the Times piece as utter hooey, and made the Democrats' future easier to predict than a Globetrotters game.

Here are the relevant stats: Favorable/unfavorable rating of the president's Iraq policy: 23/72
Rating of the most important issues facing Congress: Iraq-45 percent. Nothing else got higher than 7 percent.
Number of those polled wanting Congress to either get troops totally or partially withdrawn from Iraq: 71 percent.

The dimmest Big 12 special teams coach could draw up a game plan from these numbers. The majority of Americans want the Democrats to reverse G.W. Bush's Iraq policy and move the war closer to an end. To the extent they can accomplish this difficult mission, or at least try their damnedest, the Dems will enjoy enhanced public esteem. To the extent the new majority behaves like the supine, overcalculated trimmers they were as the minority in the past two Congresses, they will suffer.

This post has been presented as a public service. Now loyal readers can skip both all pregame blah in Boston print, radio, and TV AND not watch Chris Matthews until at least June. You can thank me later.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:20 AM