homegame

Baseball Shopping

If Daiseke Matsuzaka is as good, or nearly as good, as the Red Sox think, then he's a bargain at $103 million and a six-year contract. That would be true if Matsuzaka got the whole amount rather than half going to the Seibu Lions. It would be true if the total price was $150 million.

If Matsuzaka is only as good as Gil Meche (5 years, $55 million from the Royals) or the 2006 edition of Josh Beckett, then the Sox got screwed. That would be true if Matsuzaka had signed a 6-year contract for only $4 million a season.

No one, not Scott Boras and most assuredly not the Red Sox, can predict Matsuzaka's future. The human body wasn't meant to pitch. Before the great Free Agent Bubble of '06, Boston was loath to sign pitchers for more than 3 years, making exceptions only for the likes of Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling-potential Hall of Famers.

This is not to say Matsuzaka must be on their level to justify his contract. Markets change, and those in them must adjust accordingly.

Ever since the beginning of free agency 30 years ago, however, one thing about the national pastime HASN'T changed. Signing a big-ticket pitcher is more speculative than purchasing a mail-order bride from the Ukraine-while blindfolded and drunk.

posted by Michael Gee @ 9:33 AM