Saturday, December 04, 2010

Defense Wins Championships?

The Patriots have the NFL's best record at 9-2. They are allowing an average of over 24 points a game on defense in the process.

There are 10 other NFL teams which are surrendering more points a game than are the Pats. Their combined won-loss record is 32-79. One of them, the Jaguars, has a winning record at 6-5, and there probably aren't many bettors eager to invest in the idea they'll finish with one.

There are probably even fewer betters willing to take a plunge on the idea New England's defense will drag its record down towards the norm indicated by the above paragraph. It is obvious even to the NFL Network panel discussions that the defense need only give the offense an extra possession or so through turnovers for the Pats to win.

Moral: Defense wins HALF of every championship. Offense wins the other half. Score 30 points or more in an NFL game, you're very unlikely to lose it -- even if it's the Super Bowl. Make that especially if it's the Super Bowl. They've played 44 of those suckers now, and a team has scored 30 points or more and lost exactly once -- the Cowboys in Super Bowl XIV.

If the Pats make Super Bowl LXV, we could see another one.


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