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Weekend Investment Seminar

There are no sure things in life and especially not in football. Occasionally however, a beneficient universe lets you run into an overlay.

As a wagering proposition, the Patriots are getting five points for Sunday's divisional playoff game at San Diego against the Chargers. In the post-season, five is a very big number. Subtract the customary three-point advantage for home field, and the odds market favors the Chargers by two points which cannot be explained by traditional pigskin analysis.

My guess is the odds reflect how much closer San Diego is to Las Vegas than is New England. The sports books have likely been full of giddy Charger fans betting the gas bill money on their heroes, thus skewing the spread. This is beside the point. How an investment opportunity comes to pass is not nearly as important as recognizing one when it hits you in the face with a 2 x 4.

Here are a few relevant facts on the Chargers-Pats' matchup. One team has won three Super Bowls in the past 5 seasons, compiling an 11-1 playoff record. The other is coached by Marty Schottenheimer, whose teams (and there have been a few) haven't won an opening playoff game since 1993, when Marty's quarterback was one Joe Montana.

But wait, there's more. Thanks to their success, the Pats are rarely underdogs for any game. I cannot remember the last time they were given as many as five points for a regular season game. I do know the last post-season game New England was given that many or more points was Super Bowl XXXVI, the game that killed double-digit point spreads in the Super Bowl for all time.

This doesn't mean your correspondent is picking the Pats to win the whole game. I remain wholly undecided. There are as many easily constructed scenarios for a Charger victory as for a New England one. The last two times these teams met (regular season 2002 and 2005), LaDainian Tomlinson and company ran the ball right up the Pats' gizzle. It could well happen again.

This essay is about arbitrage, not second sight. Look at the Chargers and Pats from any conceivable angle, and they look extremely tied. Only the Pats, however, start off your wager leading 5-0. That, friends, is the classic definition of an overlay.

The whole proposition boils down to a rhetorical question. Gamblers, how many times in your life will you have the opportunity to have both Tom Brady AND the points on your side? It's worth making the bet just to see how that feels.

posted by Michael Gee @ 8:45 AM