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Wrong Again, Another in a Series

Contrary to at least one confident opinion, Deion Branch won't be in the Patriots' starting offensive lineup this Sunday after all. The incorrect pundit fell into the oldest error in the game of life, assuming human beings would act rationally in their own best interests.

Uh, no. It's obviously in Branch's interest to be paid a great deal of money to play football, and in the Pats' interest to be his employers, but neither is happening. Instead, both parties are knee-deep in the NFL labor grievance procedure, a labyrinth that makes my nose bleed just reading about it. The outcome will almost certainly neither please nor serve either side.

When it comes to contract fights, fans always root for a quick settlement and the player's return to action. This is a sound analysis of what's best for everyone in the fight, not merely the bystanders with a rooting interest.


When the fight escalates into serious lost time as the Branch matter has, fans and media observers then make the mistake of dividing the two sides into "right" and "wrong." There's no such thing in American commerce. Fights over large sums of money divide into "smart" and "stupid" and it's quite possible for both sides to be on the same side of the line.

Branch fucked up. When the Pats gave him a week to make his own sign and trade deal with another team, he trusted them. At that point, his best option was to file his grievance AND return to action. If he lost legally, no further harm would be done. If he won, he might be a free agent WHILE IN ACTION, a lucrative situation indeed.

Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, and Robert Kraft fucked up, too, and their blunder is more significant. Branch's folly affects his own career most of all. The Pats' management team makes every decision about the franchise. Its mistakes can be repeated. And it's one of the paradoxes of existence that smart people who're usually right make the most catastrophic mistakes when they're wrong.

Books have been written on the Pats' formula for success. When it comes to creating a winning roster under the NFL salary cap, their approach may be summarized as followed. Use the coercive parts of the labot agreement as much as possible to drive down salaries for young talent. Allow almost all players to get top dollar elsewhere when they reach free agency. Spread the money saved as widely as possible through the depth chart. Make exceptions to these rules only for VERY special players.

To be specific, the Pats were willing to create new contracts for Richard Seymour and Tom Brady. In their opinion, Branch wasn't that special, nor was David Givens, not Adam Vinatieri.

The formula has worked for two reasons. Brady and Seymour really are very special. Equally important, Belichick and Pioli have had an uncanny nose for finding the best not-quite-special players, who in turn were attracted to New England because it was able to offer just a bit more for their services. Most special teams aces don't get to draw an NFL salary as long as Larry Izzo has, for example.

The Pats weren't cheap. They had a different formula for sharing the artificially limited wealth. Their contrarian stance was wildly successful. Now it's paying the price of every innovation in pro football-imitation. Every team has broadened its search for the best not-quite-special players. As a result, the price of those guys' services is on the rise.

Ernest Givens is a good receiver. Your truly wouldn't have given him the deal he got from the Titans, but that's not the point. The market wants what it wants, and the objective reality of the good or service for sale isn't the issue. For the last five years, no one in the NFL has done a better job of walking the tightrope between a seller's and buyer's market than Belichick and Pioli. What the Branch fight shows, however, is that market fundamentals have changed. There's more money getting thrown at the same number of players. Branch is a holdout for the same reason it costs more to fill up your car-inflation.
Inflation is a double-edged sword. Branch should remember that when the price of gas gets high enough, some folks trade in their SUV for a Prius and cope just fine.

The Pats need to remember that their success WASN'T built on a formula. The beauty of the Belichick system is that it isn't a system of all. Every game, every player, every decision is a special case to be dealt with according to its own facts. The cost inflation of 2006 is an unpleasant fact the franchise cannot ignore.

In a game where any player can be disabled on each and every play, no one can be irreplaceable. Willie McGinest, Branch, Vinatieri-no single departed Pat should ring any alarm bells about their chances in the upcoming season.

The pattern does. Throughout the years of their run at the top, the Pats have spent to the cap limit each season. In 2006, they have not. Branch isn't the only one tampering with the franchise's economic playbook. The men who wrote it are doing the same.

posted by Michael Gee @ 8:21 AM